The maroon dots are the actual unemployment numbers (thank you to innocentbystanders.com for adding those in.) As you can clearly see, the predictions were drastically off. History has shown that government projections are often overly optimistic- social security and medicare being perhaps the most titanic examples. This graph doesn’t tell us what the unemployment number would’ve been had the stimulus not been passed (and we will never know the exact figure), but it is quite clear that the stimulus has not been able to curtail unemployment as expected by Washington economists. It also shows how little grasp many politicians and politically-sided economists actually have of the market.

With unemployment currently over 10%, the argument can be made that the stimulus has in fact not helped the situation. Either way, we are still left with the ~$780 billion tab that came with the legislation and it is clear the government was wrong in its outlook.

The monstrous miscalculation by the Obama administration should really serve as a caution for citizens in that we can not simply take what the government tells us as truth- especially when it comes to projections concerning markets. Government predictions are often wrong, and in some cases distorted due to political reasons (such as trying to push through legislation.) This is why it is important to consider several different sides when it comes to any government legislation, especially massive spending increases such as the stimulus, bailouts, or state-subsidized healthcare.

It all comes down to the Laffer curve and the fact that increasing taxes does not always mean tax revenue increases. In fact, it can often decrease tax revenue by forcing some firms to leave the market, hence reducing the overall market production by whatever those firms produced and in turn, actually reducing tax revenue by the difference in the amount that firms which decide to stay in the market pay subtracted by the total tax amount that the firms who left paid with the previous, lower tax rate.

One of the taxes that Obama plans to increase is the capital gains tax. That tax though, is past the optimal tax revenue mark on the Laffer curve, or at best is sitting right at the peak at the current 15% rate. This is evident because when Bill Clinton reduced the tax rate from 28% to 20% in 1997 the capital gains tax revenue actually increased. The same happened when George W. Bush further reduced it to 15%. On the other side, the tax was increased in the 1980s and the tax revenue from it actually decreased.

Obama has been questioned about this before and he still chooses to increase the tax for purposes of “fairness.” First of all, not only is he punishing the 100 million people in this nation who own stocks, but he is also decreasing government revenue. The logic behind it? He claims “fairness.” How he figures hurting about at third of Americans during a time like this and at the same time decreasing tax revenue and increasing spending is justified? I don’t know.

The worst part of this situation is that it is not only the capital gains tax that is in this situation. Many of our taxes are beyond the optimal tax revenue amount they should be at and increasing them will only hurt how much the government can take from taxes. In fact, many companies are already threatening to leave American markets if Obama imposes tax hikes on them. Among them is Microsoft, who’s CEO Steve Ballmer recently said that the company would move some employees offshore if Congress enacts the President’s proposal to increase taxes on foreign profits. Ballmer isn’t alone in the software industry, with nine other software executives also fighting back the hikes.

These tax increases will only hurt our economy and in many cases they will even decrease government tax revenue. Dan Mitchell of the Cato Institute recently said, “Even if all of Obama’s tax wishes comes true, the revenues won’t come close to satisfying his appetite for bigger government”- figure in the fact that many firms will even leave the market and production and sales will suffer as a result, and the argument that these tax hikes will make things worse is very reasonable.